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Central Asia + Caspian Hybrid Intelligence Skill

Risk reasoning for AI agents working on Central Asia and the Caspian.

Use this skill when an agent must explain how sanctions, banking, ownership, logistics, energy, or corridor risk moves through the region. The output starts with the driver, traces the transmission channel and exposure, labels uncertainty, and ends with role-specific actions and triggers.

It is for bank and fintech risk teams, logistics and energy operators, regional analysts, and AI builders.

Try one prompt · Open the skill file · See worked examples

GitHub stars GitHub forks License Validate

Problem it handles

General-purpose agents often return a regional summary when the user needs a risk mechanism. This skill makes the agent name what changed, how the effect travels through payments, ownership, counterparties, or routes, who is exposed, and what evidence still needs checking.

Who it is for

  • compliance and risk leadership at banks, fintechs and payment providers with SME, correspondent or routing exposure to Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan
  • sanctions desks tracking transshipment, beneficial-ownership opacity and re-export risk across the region
  • logistics, energy and trading firms operating Caspian, trans-Caspian or Middle Corridor routes
  • analysts and researchers covering the region for institutional clients
  • AI builders embedding regional risk reasoning into agents or assistants

What you get

  • mechanism-first reasoning: primary driver → transmission channel → exposure
  • explicit uncertainty labels: Verified / Plausible / Judgment / Unknown
  • role-based actions and trigger points — not "monitor closely"
  • no fabricated citations, sanctions designations, or dates

Where this sits in the Agenda Intelligence stack

Reasoning skills (markdown-first reasoning contracts for agents):

  • Global Think Tank Analyst — horizontal: policy, sanctions, regulatory, geopolitical, trade memos
  • → Central Asia + Caspian Hybrid Intelligence Skill (this repo) — vertical: sanctions, AML, banking, corridor risk in Central Asia / Caspian
  • Gulf + Middle East Hybrid Intelligence Skill — vertical: Iran sanctions, GCC banking, sovereign wealth, maritime chokepoint risk

Evidence-packet checker:

  • Agenda Intelligence MD — checks claim/source references, declared quotes, lexical support, and unmatched numbers before human review

The skills define how agents reason. Agenda Intelligence MD reports whether the supplied claim/source packet is complete enough for review. It does not establish factual truth.

Primary handoff: docs/evidence-packet-handoff.md with runnable synthetic examples/evidence-packet-handoff.json.

Try it

Paste this into an AI agent using the Codex, Claude or OpenClaw skill file:

Use the Central Asia + Caspian Hybrid Intelligence Skill.

Question: A European fintech is onboarding SME exporters in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan that trade through Caspian-connected routes. What sanctions, AML, payment-rail and routing risks matter over the next 6-12 months?
Audience: fintech risk and compliance leadership.
Time horizon: 6-12 months.
Evidence mode: reasoning-only unless live source tools are available.
Mode: risk / compliance.

Expected shape of a good answer:

  • starts with Primary driver is: ...;
  • explains how the risk transmits through payment rails, counterparties, ownership, routing or corridors;
  • labels uncertainty using Verified / Plausible / Judgment / Unknown where useful;
  • gives role-based actions and trigger points, not vague "monitor closely" advice;

The public browser demos that used this regional frame are no longer published; examples/ shows the output format.

What it does

This skill helps agents produce mechanism-first, evidence-aware, decision-useful regional risk analysis. It:

  • frames regional questions as concrete risk or strategy problems
  • explains mechanisms before implications
  • separates Verified / Plausible / Judgment / Unknown
  • maps risk transmission channels across banking, payments, routing, ownership and corridors
  • supports sanctions, AML, banking, corridor, energy, logistics and political-economy analysis
  • identifies leverage shifts and actor incentives
  • produces trigger points and watch-next indicators
  • supports role-based implications for banks, fintechs, investors, logistics operators, energy teams and analysts
  • runs a cold-start interview (docs/cold-start-interview.md) to capture role, geography, decision context, risk appetite and source access into a populated practice profile (templates/practice-profile.md) before substantive memos
  • carries an active currency watch (docs/currency-watch.md) listing fast-moving regional topics that source-backed memos should re-verify against current primary sources, with a 90-day staleness rule

What it is not

  • not sanctions screening
  • not AML transaction monitoring
  • not factuality verification by itself
  • not a live source retriever
  • not a risk database
  • not an agent framework
  • not a CLI, MCP server, or validation platform
  • not a replacement for human analyst or counsel review

Relationship to Agenda Intelligence MD and Global Think Tank Analyst

This skill is one of four repos in a wider portfolio. Each has a distinct role; do not blur them.

This repo is the Central Asia / Caspian vertical specialist. Use it standalone or inside the older analyze compatibility workflow. The current primary composition is: horizontal method → regional specialist → claim/source packet → Agenda Intelligence MD linter → human review.

Project maturity. This repo uses a two-bar Definition of Done (Bar 1 — early but credible; Bar 2 — agent-validated specialist resource). Current honest status, per criterion, lives in STATUS.md. Criteria are defined in docs/definition-of-done.md.

  • Central Asia + Caspian Hybrid Intelligence Skill (this repo) — specialist regional/corridor-risk reasoning, domain-specific risk-transmission logic, sanctions / AML / banking / logistics / energy / corridor analysis patterns.
  • Gulf + Middle East Hybrid Intelligence Skill — sibling vertical specialist; reference it when a flow crosses both regions (Iran-Caspian routes, Russia-Iran-China junction, Iraq-Kurdistan corridors, Central Asian energy routed through Gulf hubs). See gulf-middle-east-hybrid-intelligence-skill.
  • Global Think Tank Analyst — broader strategic-risk memo workflow, general policy-risk analysis, scenario and red-team memo modes: https://github.com/vassiliylakhonin/global-think-tank-analyst
  • Agenda Intelligence MD — primary evidence-packet linter; older validation, scoring, CLI / MCP / HTTP / A2A surfaces remain compatible: https://github.com/vassiliylakhonin/agenda-intelligence-md

Use this repo for specialist Central Asia + Caspian reasoning. Use Global Think Tank Analyst for broader strategic-risk memo workflows. Use Agenda Intelligence MD to lint the claim/source packet; treat its result as packet completeness, not factual truth.

This repo does not itself perform Agenda Intelligence MD validation, schema enforcement on outputs, or live source retrieval.

For the full portfolio architecture, see PORTFOLIO.md in Global Think Tank Analyst. docs/companion-patterns.md describes structural patterns for using this skill alongside Agenda Intelligence MD and Global Think Tank Analyst; for current interfaces, schemas and tooling, consult those repos directly.

Quick usage

Use the root contract in every environment. Load the matching runtime overlay after it only when the platform-specific behavior applies.

Environment File Notes
All runtimes SKILL.md Required baseline contract
Codex runtimes/codex/SKILL.md Optional agent-loop and file-output rules
Claude runtimes/claude/SKILL.md Optional retrieval and document-use rules
OpenClaw runtimes/openclaw/SKILL.md Optional direct GitHub installation guidance
ChatGPT / other LLMs SKILL.md No overlay required

Install the packaged skill in Claude Code through the existing Agenda Intelligence marketplace:

/plugin marketplace add vassiliylakhonin/agenda-intelligence-md
/plugin install central-asia-caspian@agenda-intelligence

Install in OpenClaw directly from GitHub:

openclaw skills install git:https://github.com/vassiliylakhonin/central-asia-caspian-hybrid-intelligence-skill.git --as central-asia-caspian

Validation:

python3 scripts/validate.py

The validator checks the Claude composition adapter and its load order, plugin-manifest consistency, the complete root contract, allowlisted runtime overlays, evidence-mode counts, evidence-packet structure, local links, and safety gates. It rejects overlays that duplicate common contract sections. It does not validate factuality of any output produced by the skill.

Before / after

Before — generic LLM answer:

  • broad regional commentary
  • vague "monitor sanctions"
  • no transmission mechanism
  • no actor incentives
  • no trigger points
  • no evidence boundaries

After — skill-style answer:

  • primary driver
  • mechanism (how the risk transmits)
  • exposure map (where it concentrates)
  • actor incentives and leverage
  • uncertainty labels (Verified / Plausible / Judgment / Unknown)
  • trigger points and watch-next indicators
  • role-based implications (bank, fintech, investor, operator)
  • evidence mode stated explicitly

Flagship examples

For a guided route through the examples, start with examples/README.md.

Skill files

  • skills/central-asia-caspian/SKILL.md — Claude Code plugin discovery and composition adapter; attaches the root contract, then the Claude overlay.
  • SKILL.md — complete runtime-neutral analytical contract and the only copy of common behavior.
  • runtimes/claude/SKILL.md — additive Claude retrieval and document-use rules.
  • runtimes/codex/SKILL.md — additive Codex agent-loop, file-output, and validation-chaining rules.
  • runtimes/openclaw/SKILL.md — additive OpenClaw direct GitHub installation guidance.
  • docs/cold-start-interview.md — preflight procedure that captures role, geography, decision context, risk appetite, and source access before substantive memo work. STOP rule blocks generic memos when the practice profile is missing or contains [PLACEHOLDER] markers.
  • templates/practice-profile.md — populated profile read by every memo in the session as the default Decision / Audience / Geography / Time horizon block.
  • docs/currency-watch.md — active list of fast-moving regional topics (OFAC Russia/Iran, EU sanctions packages, FATF/EAG status, Middle Corridor, CPC/BTC, etc.) that source-backed memos should re-verify against current primary sources. 90-day staleness rule.
  • scripts/validate.py — single dependency-free interface for all repository and packaging checks.

Repository layout

.
├── README.md            # Public positioning (this file)
├── AGENTS.md            # Canonical project contract (identity, scope, evidence rules)
├── CLAUDE.md            # Claude Code working rules (inherits AGENTS.md)
├── SKILL.md             # Complete runtime-neutral skill contract
├── STATUS.md            # Honest Bar 1 / Bar 2 status against the Definition of Done
├── CONTEXT.md           # Working context for cross-session continuity
├── CONTRIBUTING.md      # Local validator workflow and CI invariants
├── llms.txt             # Orientation for LLMs and agent indexers
├── runtimes/            # Runtime overlay skill files per platform (claude/, codex/, openclaw/)
├── skills/              # Claude Code plugin composition adapter
├── examples/            # Flagship memo examples (state evidence mode)
├── evals/               # Review checklist, failure modes, starter rubric, agent-eval cases
├── docs/                # Source guide, currency watch, cold-start interview, regional logic, risk archetypes
├── templates/           # Practice-profile template populated by the cold-start interview
├── scripts/             # Repository and packaging checks
└── .github/             # CI workflows

Contributing

New contributors: CONTRIBUTING.md opens with a "First 15 minutes" onboarding path — read the three load-bearing files (README.md, AGENTS.md, STATUS.md), run python3 scripts/validate.py locally, and walk one concrete live-source-backed flagship example end-to-end. CI runs the same command on every push.

Cross-repo terminology — evidence modes, Verified/Plausible/Judgment/Unknown labels, Axis A/B provenance tags (incl. table-cell discipline), three-value response logic, and the deliberate maturity-framework asymmetry across the four-repo stack (this repo and the Gulf+ME sibling use Bar 1/2; global-think-tank-analyst uses VALIDATION_PLAN.md; agenda-intelligence-md uses ROADMAP.md version targets) — is consolidated in the portfolio glossary at agenda-intelligence-md/docs/glossary.md.

Source guide

Latest source-maintenance pass: docs/source-refresh-2026-07-11.md.

A source-backed workflow uses external retrieval, user-provided source packets, or companion tooling. The skill itself does not retrieve sources.

docs/source-guide.md lists recommended source classes:

  • official sanctions lists (OFAC, EU, UK OFSI, UN, national regimes)
  • national regulators and central banks
  • customs / statistics / trade agencies
  • company registries, BO registers, court records
  • FATF / Egmont / FIU public materials
  • IFIs (IMF, World Bank, EBRD, ADB, AIIB)
  • government releases
  • ports, rail, corridor and logistics operators
  • energy and infrastructure operators
  • credible regional and international media as Tier 2

Listing a source class is not an endorsement and does not guarantee accuracy or timeliness for any specific question.

Risk archetypes

docs/risk-archetypes.md catalogues recurring archetypes for the region. For each: mechanism → typical indicators → evidence needed → common false positives → watch-next triggers → role-based enforcement actions. Current archetypes:

  1. Re-export / transshipment exposure
  2. Dual-use goods routing
  3. Correspondent banking de-risking
  4. Beneficial ownership opacity
  5. Sanctioned-party adjacency
  6. Energy / logistics chokepoint risk
  7. Customs / statistics anomaly
  8. State-capacity enforcement gap
  9. China / Russia / EU leverage competition
  10. Caspian corridor disruption
  11. Regulatory arbitrage
  12. Payment-rail exposure

Use them as patterns to structure reasoning, not as factual claims about any specific entity, route or jurisdiction.

docs/regional-logic.md explains when to include which geography. Core rule: do not expand geography for decoration; expand only when it changes the mechanism, risk exposure, leverage or decision.

Review checklist

evals/checklist.md — review checklist (not a benchmark) covering scope, reasoning quality, evidence discipline, tone/safety and decision usefulness.

evals/starter-rubric.md — starter rubric for scoring memos against the analytical contract. Honest label: starter rubric, not a validated benchmark.

evals/scoring-example.md — worked scoring examples applying the rubric to a reasoning-only memo and to the live-source-backed memo. The rubric includes evidence-mode-specific dimensions for each of the four canonical modes.

Evidence mode vocabulary

Every example and every memo produced with this skill should state one of four canonical evidence modes:

  • live-source-backed — facts retrieved from current authoritative sources at the time of writing.
  • user-provided sources — facts grounded in a source packet supplied by the user.
  • illustrative source packet — facts grounded in a constructed, illustrative source packet for demonstration purposes.
  • reasoning-only — no sources retrieved; structural reasoning only. No factual claims about specific entities, designations or enforcement actions.

Roadmap

Indicative direction, not a commitment:

  • continued refinement of docs/risk-archetypes.md indicator catalogues as the field evolves — crypto/VASP archetype (#13) added 2026-05-12
  • additional worked memos in each evidence mode as new use cases arise
  • pairing of live-source-backed memos with primary-list URLs (OFAC SDN, BIS Entity List, EU consolidated, FATF/EAG MER PDFs) once retrieved at point of use

This roadmap is additive. It will not turn this repo into a CLI, MCP server, screening engine or validation platform.

About

A reusable AI-agent skill for Central Asia and Caspian risk analysis across sanctions, AML, banking, corridors, logistics, and energy.

Topics

agent-skillai-agentsamlbankingcaspiancentral-asiaenergygeopolitical-risklogisticssanctions

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