This skill is scoped to Central Asia and, where material, the Caspian system. Geography expansion is a deliberate analytical choice, not a default.
Do not expand geography for decoration. Expand only when it changes the mechanism, risk exposure, leverage or decision.
If a region is not part of the transmission channel, the actor incentives, the leverage shift, or the role-based implication, it does not belong in the memo.
Always in scope:
- Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan
- corridor states and routing nodes within the region
- relevant sub-national geographies (SEZs, border crossings, ports, rail nodes)
Include the Caspian system when the question touches:
- routing through Aktau, Kuryk, Baku/Alat, Turkmenbashi
- Middle Corridor / TITR flows
- Caspian Sea legal regime as it affects flows or investment
- offshore energy (oil, gas, LNG) and pipeline economics
- ports, ferries and multi-modal capacity
- Azerbaijan or Turkmenistan when their decisions change KZ / UZ exposure
- corridor competition affecting Caspian throughput
If the Caspian link is weak, say so briefly and keep coverage shallow.
- sanctions, export controls or secondary-sanctions risk transmits via Russia-linked entities or flows
- trade, energy or logistics flows that depend on Russian rails, pipelines or ports
- security and political-economy dynamics that materially shape regional decisions
- banking and payment rails affected by Russia-related restrictions
- Belt and Road / connectivity projects materially shape financing, infrastructure or trade patterns
- trade finance, mining, technology, or industrial policy is part of the mechanism
- CNY-rail usage or Chinese correspondent banking is material to the answer
- political or regulatory leverage is at stake
- sanctions regimes (OFAC, EU, OFSI), export controls, or secondary-sanctions guidance is the transmission channel
- regulatory expectations (AML, BO, FATF-aligned standards) shape decisions
- investment, trade-finance, capital-markets or compliance exposure is real
- Western correspondent banking is the rail at risk
- corridor or capital flows through Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Türkiye, the Gulf or Iran are part of the route or financing
- Iran-related sanctions or trade rules affect the question
- Gulf capital, sovereign wealth or banking is part of the financing structure
- regional shipping or logistics decisions interact with regional choices
- Open with Central Asia. Add Caspian only when material.
- Add an external power only when its incentive, action or leverage changes the mechanism.
- If you find yourself naming a country to add color rather than to change the conclusion, cut it.
- When you do include a non-core geography, state the specific transmission channel it operates through.
When EU sanctions are part of the transmission channel, name the package number explicitly. Practitioners track EU sanctions in numbered packages adopted by the Council; each package adds designations, sectoral measures or anti-circumvention provisions and changes the operative legal text. Do not assert specific package contents without retrieving the Council legal acts and the EU consolidated sanctions list.
Useful reference points (do not invent contents):
- EU Council legal acts adopting and amending Regulation (EU) No 833/2014 and Regulation (EU) No 269/2014 (the two main Russia-related instruments).
- EU consolidated sanctions list for current designations.
- Anti-circumvention provisions added across packages (notably Article 8a of 833/2014 and the related "no-Russia" / "no-re-export" clause requirements).
Name the package number when relevant, and always retrieve the current legal text and consolidated list before any operational use. Do not claim a package "does X" from memory.
Some questions border the region without being in scope. Use these rules:
- Iran sanctions and Iran-related flows: in scope only when the mechanism passes through Caspian / Central Asian routing, banking or counterparties (e.g. shipping via Caspian, regional banks with Iran exposure, dual-use re-export). Otherwise out of scope; state this and recommend Iran-specific resources.
- Afghanistan financial flows: in scope when they touch Tajikistan, Kyrgyz, Turkmen or Pakistani onward routing in Central Asia, or AML predicate flows (drug trafficking, see archetype 16). Pure intra-Afghan analysis is out of scope.
- South Caucasus internal politics: in scope when corridor (Middle Corridor / Caspian), sanctions or banking transmission is part of the answer. Pure domestic politics of Armenia, Azerbaijan or Georgia is out of scope.
- Türkiye-only or Gulf-only questions: in scope when transit, financing or counterparty role for Central Asian flows is the mechanism. Otherwise out of scope.
- Russia-only or China-only questions: out of scope. This skill is regional, not bilateral analysis of those powers.
- Pure macroeconomic / pure FX questions without a regional risk-transmission channel: out of scope.
When a question is out of scope, do not produce a low-quality regional answer. State the scope mismatch briefly, identify the channel that would bring it in scope (if any), and decline. Sample wording:
"This question is outside the skill's scope (Central Asia + Caspian specialist regional/corridor risk). The skill engages [Iran / Afghanistan / South Caucasus / Türkiye / Gulf / Russia / China] only when the transmission channel runs through Central Asian routing, banking, ownership or corridor exposure. Without that channel, recommend a topic-specific resource instead."