Merge pull request #3881 from springfall2008/copilot/fix-predbat-savings-values

Fix savings_yesterday_predbat fluctuating throughout the day on dynamic tariffs

Author: springfall2008

apps/predbat/output.py

@@ -2736,15 +2736,21 @@ def calculate_yesterday(self):
         past_rates_no_io = self.history_to_future_rates(self.rate_import_no_io, 24 * 60, end_record + self.minutes_now)
         past_rates_export = self.history_to_future_rates(self.rate_export, 24 * 60, end_record + self.minutes_now)
 
-        # Assume user might charge at the lowest rate only, for fix tariff
+        # Assume user might charge at the lowest rate only, for fixed tariff
+        # Only use yesterday's rate range (k < end_record) for the threshold to prevent today's rates
+        # (which are added progressively as minutes_now increases) from changing the baseline charge
+        # windows on each hourly recalculation and causing savings_yesterday to fluctuate.
         charge_window_best = []
-        rate_low = min(past_rates.values())
+        rate_low = self.compute_rate_low_for_yesterday(past_rates, end_record)
         combine_charge = self.combine_charge_slots
 
         # Find the best charge windows yesterday
         if self.calculate_savings_max_charge_slots > 0:
             self.combine_charge_slots = True
-            if past_rates_no_io and (min(past_rates_no_io.values()) != max(past_rates_no_io.values())):
+            # Only check variability in yesterday's rates to avoid today's variable tariff rates
+            # triggering charge window detection when yesterday had a flat tariff
+            no_io_yesterday_values = [v for k, v in past_rates_no_io.items() if k < end_record]
+            if no_io_yesterday_values and (min(no_io_yesterday_values) != max(no_io_yesterday_values)):
                 # Use the Non-IO rates when finding charge windows as hardwired charge wouldn't account for this
                 charge_window_best, lowest, highest = self.rate_scan_window(past_rates_no_io, 5, rate_low, False, return_raw=True)
             self.combine_charge_slots = combine_charge
@@ -3233,6 +3239,22 @@ def log_option_best(self):
             opts += ", metric_carbon({}{}/kg) ".format(self.carbon_metric, curr)
         self.log("Calculate Best options: " + opts)
 
+    def compute_rate_low_for_yesterday(self, past_rates, end_record):
+        """
+        Compute the lowest rate from yesterday's rate range only (k < end_record).
+
+        Restricts the threshold to yesterday's window so that today's rates, which are
+        progressively appended to past_rates as minutes_now increases, cannot lower the
+        threshold and cause different charge windows to be found on each hourly savings
+        recalculation.
+        """
+        yesterday_values = [v for k, v in past_rates.items() if k < end_record]
+        if yesterday_values:
+            return min(yesterday_values)
+        if past_rates:
+            return min(past_rates.values())
+        return 0.0
+
     def history_to_future_rates(self, rates, offset, end_record):
         """
         Shift rates from the past into a future array

apps/predbat/tests/test_savings_stability.py

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# Predbat Home Battery System
+# Copyright Trefor Southwell 2026 - All Rights Reserved
+# This application maybe used for personal use only and not for commercial use
+# -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
+# fmt off
+# pylint: disable=consider-using-f-string
+# pylint: disable=line-too-long
+# pylint: disable=attribute-defined-outside-init
+
+
+def test_savings_stability(my_predbat):
+    """
+    Test that compute_rate_low_for_yesterday (used in calculate_yesterday) returns a
+    stable rate_low regardless of which point in the day the calculation runs.
+
+    Bug: when past_rates was built with end_record + minutes_now entries, today's
+    cheap/negative tariff slots (e.g. Agile 0p) entered the dict as minutes_now grew,
+    dropping rate_low and causing rate_scan_window to find no charge windows for
+    yesterday, making savings_yesterday fluctuate hourly.
+
+    Fix: compute_rate_low_for_yesterday filters to k < end_record (yesterday only).
+    This test calls the production methods directly (history_to_future_rates and
+    compute_rate_low_for_yesterday) to verify the fix is exercised.
+    """
+    failed = 0
+    end_record = 24 * 60  # 1440 minutes
+
+    # Build rate_import dict representing:
+    #   Yesterday (keys -1440..-1): cheap 00:00-06:00 (5p), expensive otherwise (25p)
+    #   Today (keys 0+): expensive mostly, but a 0p slot at 60-120 min (like Agile)
+    cheap_rate = 5.0
+    expensive_rate = 25.0
+    today_cheap_rate = 0.0
+
+    rate_import = {}
+    # Yesterday: negative keys -1440 to -1
+    for minute in range(0, end_record):
+        rate_import[minute - end_record] = cheap_rate if minute < 360 else expensive_rate
+    # Today: keys 0 to 1439
+    for minute in range(0, end_record):
+        rate_import[minute] = today_cheap_rate if 60 <= minute < 120 else expensive_rate
+
+    # Test compute_rate_low_for_yesterday (production helper) at three points in time.
+    # Uses history_to_future_rates (production code) to build past_rates exactly as
+    # calculate_yesterday() does.
+    for minutes_now_val, label in [(0, "midnight"), (240, "mid-morning"), (720, "noon")]:
+        past_rates = my_predbat.history_to_future_rates(rate_import, end_record, end_record + minutes_now_val)
+        rate_low = my_predbat.compute_rate_low_for_yesterday(past_rates, end_record)
+        print("rate_low at {} (minutes_now={}): {}".format(label, minutes_now_val, rate_low))
+        if rate_low != cheap_rate:
+            print("ERROR: rate_low at {} should be {} (yesterday's min), got {}".format(label, cheap_rate, rate_low))
+            failed = 1
+
+    # Confirm the old broken behaviour: min of the full dict drops when today's 0p slot is included
+    past_rates_morning = my_predbat.history_to_future_rates(rate_import, end_record, end_record + 240)
+    rate_low_broken_morning = min(past_rates_morning.values()) if past_rates_morning else 0.0
+    print("OLD broken rate_low at mid-morning: {} (should be {}, confirms the bug)".format(rate_low_broken_morning, today_cheap_rate))
+    if rate_low_broken_morning != today_cheap_rate:
+        print("INFO: broken rate_low at morning={} (expected {} to demonstrate original bug)".format(rate_low_broken_morning, today_cheap_rate))
+
+    # Test rate_scan_window behaviour with deterministic state, save/restoring all state
+    old_combine_charge_slots = my_predbat.combine_charge_slots
+    old_minutes_now = my_predbat.minutes_now
+    old_forecast_minutes = my_predbat.forecast_minutes
+
+    try:
+        # Set deterministic values required by rate_scan_window / find_charge_window
+        my_predbat.minutes_now = 0
+        my_predbat.forecast_minutes = end_record
+        my_predbat.combine_charge_slots = True
+
+        # Build past_rates at noon (worst case: today's 0p slot is included)
+        past_rates_noon = my_predbat.history_to_future_rates(rate_import, end_record, end_record + 720)
+        rate_low_noon = my_predbat.compute_rate_low_for_yesterday(past_rates_noon, end_record)
+
+        # Fixed rate_low (5p) should find yesterday's cheap window (0-360 minutes)
+        charge_windows, _low, _high = my_predbat.rate_scan_window(past_rates_noon, 5, rate_low_noon, False, return_raw=True)
+        charge_windows_yesterday = [c for c in charge_windows if c["start"] < end_record]
+        print("Charge windows with FIXED rate_low={}: {}".format(rate_low_noon, charge_windows_yesterday))
+        if not charge_windows_yesterday:
+            print("ERROR: charge windows should be found in yesterday's data with fixed rate_low")
+            failed = 1
+        else:
+            for cw in charge_windows_yesterday:
+                if cw["average"] > rate_low_noon + 0.01:
+                    print("ERROR: charge window average {} exceeds fixed rate_low {}".format(cw["average"], rate_low_noon))
+                    failed = 1
+
+        # Old broken rate_low (0p) finds no charge windows in yesterday's data
+        rate_low_broken = min(past_rates_noon.values()) if past_rates_noon else 0.0
+        charge_windows_broken, _, _ = my_predbat.rate_scan_window(past_rates_noon, 5, rate_low_broken, False, return_raw=True)
+        charge_windows_broken_yesterday = [c for c in charge_windows_broken if c["start"] < end_record]
+        print("Charge windows with BROKEN rate_low={}: {}".format(rate_low_broken, charge_windows_broken_yesterday))
+        # With 0p threshold no yesterday windows should be found (yesterday min is 5p)
+        if charge_windows_broken_yesterday:
+            print("INFO: unexpected windows found at 0p threshold - may be harmless test setup artifact")
+
+    finally:
+        # Always restore shared my_predbat state
+        my_predbat.combine_charge_slots = old_combine_charge_slots
+        my_predbat.minutes_now = old_minutes_now
+        my_predbat.forecast_minutes = old_forecast_minutes
+
+    return failed

apps/predbat/unit_test.py

@@ -118,6 +118,7 @@
 from tests.test_discard_unused_charge_slots import run_discard_unused_charge_slots_tests
 from tests.test_discard_unused_export_slots import run_discard_unused_export_slots_tests
 from tests.test_marginal_costs import test_marginal_costs
+from tests.test_savings_stability import test_savings_stability
 
 
 # Mock the components and plugin system
@@ -292,6 +293,7 @@ def main():
         ("discard_unused_charge_slots", run_discard_unused_charge_slots_tests, "Discard unused charge slots tests", False),
         ("discard_unused_export_slots", run_discard_unused_export_slots_tests, "Discard unused export slots tests", False),
         ("marginal_costs", test_marginal_costs, "Marginal energy cost matrix tests", False),
+        ("savings_stability", test_savings_stability, "Savings yesterday rate_low stability tests", False),
         ("compare", test_compare, "Compare tariff engine tests (hardware overrides, bleed isolation)", False),
         ("gateway", run_gateway_tests, "GatewayMQTT component tests (protobuf, plan serialization, commands, telemetry)", False),
         ("optimise_levels", run_optimise_levels_tests, "Optimise levels tests", False),