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<!DOCTYPE html>
<html lang="en" data-theme="dark">
<head>
<meta charset="UTF-8">
<meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0">
<title>DEq: Estimated Draft Equity</title>
<link href="_static/styles/theme.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link href="_static/styles/pydata-sphinx-theme.css" rel="stylesheet" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/pygments.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/styles/sphinx-book-theme.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/togglebutton.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/copybutton.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/mystnb.4510f1fc1dee50b3e5859aac5469c37c29e427902b24a333a5f9fcb2f0b3ac41.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/sphinx-thebe.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/sphinx-design.min.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="_static/style.css?v={version}" />
<link rel="icon" href="_static/deq.png"/>
</head>
<body>
<div class="deq-container">
<div class="deq-logo">DEq</div>
<div class="info-table-container">
<table class="info-table">
<tr>
<th>Set</th>
<th>Start</th>
<th>End</th>
<th>?</th>
</tr>
<tr>
<td id="dropdown">
<select name="set-code" id="link-select">
{select_elements}
</select>
</td>
<td>
<div id="startDate"> {start_date} </div>
</td>
<td>
<div id="endDate"> {end_date} </div>
</td>
<td>
<button class="doc-button" id="docButton"><span>▼</span></button>
</td>
</tr>
</table>
<div class="doc-text" id="docText">
<p><strong>DEq</strong> (like "D.Q."), or Estimated Draft Equity, is a card quality
metric designed to be used as a pick order in booster draft. The value represents
the expected win rate added to your deck by selecting the given card versus a basic
land. </p>
<p>Based on daily data from the <a href="https://17lands.com/card_data">card data</a>
page on 17Lands, the metric adjusts
GP WR by the opportunity cost as recorded in the ATA statistic, in addition to other
minor adjustments, and modifies the result by % GP to account for differences in play
rate. DEq combines top- and all-player data. The <strong>% Top</strong>
field shows the relative contribution of top-player data, which is determined only based on sample size. All of the component metrics are synthesized using this ratio.</p>
<p>
For more details, see the <a href="deq-docs.html">documentation</a> and additional
content at <a href="intro.html">MagicFlea on Draft</a>. One tip while you're here — if you're feeling
inclined to go against the rankings, I suggest doing so in the direction of win rate (MWR).
When making modeling choices under uncertainty I've chosen to err in the direction of drawing distinction with win rate,
because I anticipate people will be familiar with those basic rankings, whether they be GIH WR or GP WR. So while
I do advocate using the rankings as-is, you can't be too wrong if you tilt a bit towards the raw win rate.</p>
<p>
<strong>NPR</strong> is a metric measuring the preferences of top players on a logarithmic
scale. Each
increment of 1.0 represents twice the chance of being picked first from a random fresh pack,
and an NPR of 0.0 represents even odds of being chosen from an average pack. For more, see
<a href="npr-docs.html">documentation</a>.</p>
<p>
DEq is not affiliated with 17Lands.
</p>
<hr>
<strong>Search Examples:</strong>
<ul>
<li>Black Lotus</li>
<li>"black lotus"/mox/"sol ring"</li>
<li>c:w/u/b/r/g/c/m</li>
<li>c:w* r:u</li>
<li>r:r/m</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<div class="search-container">
<input
type="text"
class="search-input"
id="searchInput"
placeholder='search name, color, and rarity'
autocomplete="off"
autofocus
>
<div class="search-chips" id="searchChips"></div>
</div>
<div class="table-container">
<table id="dataTable">
<thead>
<tr>
<th>Grade</th>
<th data-sort="deq">DEq <span class="sort-ind">▼</span></th>
<th data-sort="name">Name <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
<th data-sort="color">Color <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
<th class="col-hidden" data-sort="rarity">Rarity <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
<th class="col-hidden col-embargo" data-sort="mwr">MWR <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
<th class="col-hidden col-embargo" data-sort="pick_equity">PEq <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
<th class="col-hidden col-embargo" data-sort="adj">Adj <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
<th class="col-hidden col-embargo" data-sort="pct_gp">% GP <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
<th class="col-hidden">% Top</th>
<th class="col-hidden" data-sort="npr">NPR <span class="sort-ind"></span></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody id="tableBody"></tbody>
</table>
<div id="noResults" class="no-results" style="display: none;">
No results found for your search.
</div>
</div>
<span>
Underlying data from <a href="https://17Lands.com/card_data">17Lands</a> with permission
</span>
<span>Original content ©2025-2026 MagicFlea</span>
</div>
<div class="modal-overlay" id="modal">
<div class="modal-content">
<button class="modal-nav" id="modalPrev">‹</button>
<button class="modal-nav" id="modalNext">›</button>
<div class="modal-body">
<div class="modal-left">
<div class="modal-image-container">
<img class="modal-image" id="modalImage" src="" alt="">
<button class="modal-toggle" id="modalToggle" type="button">Stats</button>
</div>
</div>
<div class="modal-data-panel">
<div class="modal-metrics-container">
<div class="stat-panel">
<div class="stat-card-header">
<div class="stat-card-name" id="modalCardName"></div>
<div class="stat-card-meta">
<span id="modalCardSet"></span><span class="stat-sep">·</span><span id="modalCardColor"></span><span class="stat-sep">·</span><span id="modalCardRarity"></span>
</div>
</div>
<div class="stat-top-info">
<span><span class="tip-label" data-metric="NPR">NPR</span> <span id="modalNpr" class="stat-top-value"></span></span>
<span class="stat-sep">·</span>
<span><span class="tip-label" data-metric="% Top">% Top</span> <span id="modalPctTop" class="stat-top-value"></span></span>
</div>
<div class="stat-tooltip-area">
<div class="tooltip-metric-name" id="tooltipName"></div>
<div class="tooltip-text" id="tooltipText"></div>
<div class="stat-embargo-note">Note: Underlying metric values are available on <a href="https://17lands.com/card_data">17Lands.com</a> during the early days of the format.</div>
</div>
<div class="stat-calc">
<div class="calc-row col-embargo">
<span class="calc-label tip-label" data-metric="MWR">MWR</span>
<span class="calc-op"></span>
<span class="calc-value" id="modalMwr"></span>
</div>
<div class="calc-row col-embargo">
<span class="calc-label tip-label" data-metric="PEq">PEq</span>
<span class="calc-op" id="modalPeqOp"></span>
<span class="calc-value" id="modalPeq"></span>
</div>
<div class="calc-row col-embargo">
<span class="calc-label tip-label" data-metric="Adj">Adj</span>
<span class="calc-op" id="modalAdjOp"></span>
<span class="calc-value" id="modalAdj"></span>
</div>
<div class="calc-tally col-embargo"></div>
<div class="calc-row calc-subtotal col-embargo">
<span class="calc-label tip-label" data-metric="Played DEq">Played DEq</span>
<span class="calc-op"></span>
<span class="calc-value" id="modalPlayedDeq"></span>
</div>
<div class="calc-row col-embargo">
<span class="calc-label tip-label" data-metric="% GP">% GP</span>
<span class="calc-op" id="modalPctGpOp">×</span>
<span class="calc-value" id="modalPctGp"></span>
</div>
<div class="calc-tally"></div>
</div>
<div class="stat-credit">underlying metrics courtesy <a href="https://17lands.com/card_data">17Lands</a></div>
</div>
<button class="modal-toggle-back" id="modalToggleBack" type="button">Card</button>
</div>
<div class="modal-stats-container">
<div class="info-panel">
<div class="info-title-badge" id="infoDeqTitle">
<span class="info-deq-title">DEq</span>
<span class="info-score-credit">by MagicFlea</span>
</div>
<div class="info-score-inset">
<span class="info-deq-value" id="modalDeq"></span>
</div>
<div class="info-grade-inset">
<span class="info-grade" id="modalGrade"></span>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<script src="_static/deq.js?v={version}"></script>
</body>
</html>