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Silver Bullet AM Session Strategy

Source: YouTube back-testing walkthrough with FX Replay Instrument: NQ (Nasdaq 100 CFD / Futures) Style: Time-window-based intraday reversal strategy Session: New York AM only (10:00 AM - 11:00 AM EST)

Overview

The Silver Bullet AM Session strategy is a time-restricted reversal model. It uses the 9:00 AM hourly candle as a reference range and trades only between 10:00 AM and 11:00 AM. The setup requires price to sweep one side of the 9 AM range, then enter in the opposite direction to target the other side. If no sweep occurs within the window, no trade is taken.

Framework

1. Mark the 9:00 AM Hourly Candle

  • At 10:00 AM, mark the high and low of the 9:00 AM hourly candle.
  • This range defines the playing field for the session.

2. Mark the Silver Bullet Window

  • Draw vertical lines or a session box from 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM.
  • All entries must occur within this window — no exceptions.

3. Wait for a Sweep

  • On the 1-minute chart, wait for price to take one side of the 9 AM range:
    • Sweep of the 9 AM high → look for a short entry targeting the 9 AM low.
    • Sweep of the 9 AM low → look for a long entry targeting the 9 AM high.
  • If price does not sweep either side before 11:00 AM, no trade is taken.

4. Entry Model

After the sweep, look for an entry using one of these patterns on the 1-minute chart:

Entry Type Description
Breaker Block A candle that supported/resisted price before the sweep, now acting as the opposite. Enter on retest.
Fair Value Gap A three-candle imbalance forming after the sweep and displacement back into the range.
Order Block The last opposing candle before displacement back into the range.

Confirmation filters:

  • Look for displacement (aggressive, impulsive move) back into the range after the sweep.
  • A candle should close back inside the range (past the swept level) to confirm reversal.
  • Avoid entries where the sweep is shallow and there is no clear displacement.

5. Stop Loss and Target

Parameter Value
Stop Loss Above/below the sweep high/low
Take Profit The opposite side of the 9 AM range
Risk per trade 1% of account

6. Break-Even Rule

  • Once the trade reaches 3R, move the stop loss to break even.
  • This protects profits while allowing the trade to run to the full target.

Trade Management Flow

10:00 AM → Mark 9 AM high/low
         → Wait for sweep of high or low
         → Sweep occurs?
            ├── YES → Look for displacement + entry model
            │         → Entry before 11 AM?
            │            ├── YES → Place trade (1% risk)
            │            │         → Hits 3R? → Move stop to break even
            │            │         → Hits target or stops out
            │            └── NO  → No trade
            └── NO (by 11 AM) → No trade

Back-Test Results (July - Mid August, NQ)

From the video's FX Replay back-test over ~45 days:

Metric Value
Total Trades 15
Trading Days 45
Average R:R ~5:1
Average Trade Duration 1 hr 29 min
July Return +23.5%
August Return (partial) +16.93%
Total Return +44.4%
Best Day Wednesday

Note: This was a limited sample size. A deeper back-test across more months is recommended for statistical significance.

Key Observations from Back-Testing

  1. Many sessions produce no trade. If no sweep occurs within the 10-11 AM window, simply move on. Patience is essential.
  2. Shallow sweeps are low quality. Prefer sweeps with clear displacement back into the range — avoid entries on weak, choppy price action.
  3. Aggressive displacement is the best filter. The highest-quality entries come after a clear, impulsive move back into the range following the sweep.
  4. Breaker blocks and FVGs are the primary entry models. Both work; breaker blocks sometimes offer earlier entries while FVGs provide more confirmation.
  5. The 3R break-even rule protects capital. Several trades in the back-test hit 3R+ before pulling back, making this rule critical.
  6. Losses are part of the model. Some setups that look valid will stop out — this is expected and accounted for by the high average R:R.

Step-by-Step Checklist

  1. At 10:00 AM, mark the high and low of the 9:00 AM hourly candle
  2. Mark the 10:00 AM to 11:00 AM Silver Bullet window
  3. On the 1-minute chart, wait for price to sweep one side of the 9 AM range
  4. After the sweep, look for displacement back into the range
  5. Identify an entry: breaker block, fair value gap, or order block
  6. Confirm the entry occurs before 11:00 AM — cancel if outside the window
  7. Place the trade: stop above/below the sweep, target the opposite side of the 9 AM range
  8. Risk 1% of account per trade
  9. At 3R, move stop to break even
  10. Let the trade run to target or stop out

When NOT to Trade

  • No sweep of the 9 AM high or low occurs before 11:00 AM
  • The sweep is very shallow with no follow-through displacement
  • Price action is choppy/consolidating with no clear structure
  • The entry model would place you past 11:00 AM
  • The risk-to-reward to the opposite side of the range is less than ~2.5R