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Merge pull request #261 from aloctavodia/lec11_link
Add link to notebook
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Aalto2025.Rmd

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| 8\. Model checking & cross-validation | [BDA3 Chapter 6](BDA3_notes.html#ch6), [BDA3 Chapter 7](BDA3_notes.html#ch7), [Visualization in Bayesian workflow](https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12378), [Practical Bayesian cross-validation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04544) | [2025 Lecture 8.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=fc3c9220-cd04-4b17-b6f4-b38300ca5e12), <br> [2024 Lecture 8.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=f25a56b5-492b-4c5d-974f-b38300da456a), <br>[Slides 8a](slides/BDA_lecture_8a.pdf),[Slides 8b](slides/BDA_lecture_8b.pdf) | Start project work | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week9")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week9")` |
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| 9\. Model comparison, selection, and hypothesis testing | [BDA3 Chapter 7 (not 7.2 and 7.3)](BDA3_notes.html#ch7), <br> [Practical Bayesian cross-validation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.04544) | [2025 Lecture 9.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=8ff95182-0a49-4f53-a2c4-b38a00caa423), <br> [2025 Lecture 9.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=04350ffd-4379-4ada-87ce-b38a00d925e8), <br>[Slides 9](slides/BDA_lecture_9.pdf) | [Assignment 8](assignments/assignment8.html) | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week10")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week10")` |
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| 10\. Decision analysis, R2D2 prior, normal approximation | [BDA3 Chapter 9](BDA3_notes.html#ch9) | [2025 Lecture 10.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=f5e55c11-c090-4c7e-92d3-b39100ca289d), [2025 Lecture 10.2](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=40fdc2d7-2d31-4e73-bcde-b39100ddd864), <br>[Slides 10a](slides/BDA_lecture_10a.pdf), [Slides 10c](slides/BDA_lecture_10c.pdf), [Slides 10b](slides/BDA_lecture_10b.pdf) | [Assignment 9](assignments/assignment9.html) | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week11")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week11")` |
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| 11\. Prior-likelihood sensitivity, variable selection, Bayesian Python packages| [BDA3 Chapter 4](BDA3_notes.html#ch4) | [2024 Lecture 11.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=5bb91a96-d48c-4512-8ced-b23300ca2f39), <br>[Slides 11a](slides/BDA_lecture_11a.pdf), [Slides 11b](slides/BDA_lecture_11b.pdf), [Jupyter notebook](slides/BDA_lecture_11c.ipynb) | Project work | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week12")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week12")` |
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| 11\. Prior-likelihood sensitivity, variable selection, Bayesian Python packages| [BDA3 Chapter 4](BDA3_notes.html#ch4) | [2024 Lecture 11.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=5bb91a96-d48c-4512-8ced-b23300ca2f39), <br>[Slides 11a](slides/BDA_lecture_11a.pdf), [Slides 11b](slides/BDA_lecture_11b.pdf) | Project work | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week12")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week12")` |
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| 12\. Project presentation advise, Q&A | | [2024 Project presentation advice](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=96c2784a-0546-48bd-a7b8-b23300e28008) | Project work | `r sdate("Lecture date", "Week13")` | `r sdate("Assignment closes (23:59)", "Week13")` |
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| 13\. Project evaluation | | | | Project presentations: `r params$project_presentations` | Evaluation week |
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### 11) Prior-likelihood sensitivity, variable selection, Bayesian Python packages
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- **Lecture `r paste(sday("Lecture date", "Week12"), sdate("Lecture date", "Week12"))` 14:15-16, hall T2, CS building**
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- [Slides 11a](slides/BDA_lecture_11a.pdf), [Slides 11b](slides/BDA_lecture_11b.pdf), [Jupyter notebook](slides/BDA_lecture_11c.ipynb)
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- [Slides 11a](slides/BDA_lecture_11a.pdf), [Slides 11b](slides/BDA_lecture_11b.pdf)
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- Videos: [2024 Lecture 11.1](https://aalto.cloud.panopto.eu/Panopto/Pages/Viewer.aspx?id=5bb91a96-d48c-4512-8ced-b23300ca2f39) on variable selecion with projpred.
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- No new assignment. Work on project. TAs help with projects.
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- [TA sessions](assignments.html#TA_sessions)

slides/BDA_lecture_11b.pdf

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slides/BDA_lecture_11b.tex

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\begin{itemize}
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\item \href{https://python.arviz.org/en/stable/}{ArviZ}, MCMC diagnostics, model checking, model comparison, plotting, prior-sensitivity...
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\item \href{https://bambinos.github.io/bambi}{Bambi}, BAyesian Model-Building Interface
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\item \href{https://kulprit.readthedocs.io}{Kulprit}, projective inference (still under development)
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\item \href{https://kulprit.readthedocs.io}{Kulprit}, projective inference
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\end{itemize}
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\end{itemize}
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\href{https://github.com/avehtari/BDA_course_Aalto/blob/master/slides/BDA_lecture_11c.ipynb}{\color{blue}{Download}} Jupyter Notebook with examples.
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\end{frame}
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