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| 1 | +# Thread state — Dynamical LBD (Gen-4) |
| 2 | + |
| 3 | +*Layer-2 thread-state contract (vault: `wiki/analyses/research-routine-packs-spec.md`). Read by |
| 4 | +the vault's `/cartographer` bridge in place of the retired `.gpd/` state. Keep current: same-day |
| 5 | +update after every experiment run (vault: `wiki/meta/research-operating-manual.md`, "per |
| 6 | +numerical experiment / run"). Vault mirror of the hypothesis rows: `wiki/meta/hypothesis-ledger.md`.* |
| 7 | + |
| 8 | +## Hard core |
| 9 | + |
| 10 | +The knowledge graph is a *dynamical system*; bridges *emerge* from generation, not static |
| 11 | +scoring (Gen-4 LBD — vault: `wiki/concepts/dynamical-lbd.md`, the three acceptance criteria). |
| 12 | + |
| 13 | +## Live hypotheses (mirror of vault hypothesis-ledger) |
| 14 | + |
| 15 | +| id | statement | discriminating experiment | status | |
| 16 | +|---|---|---|---| |
| 17 | +| H-RS-substrate | Cellular **sheaves** over the Louvain community graph detect multi-causal bridges better than RAFs or Kuramoto | 4-tier benchmark incl. multi-causal joint-removal ablation on the shared 10-pair Feynman set | live (**pivoting** — substrate rebuild via EXP-RS-11) | |
| 18 | + |
| 19 | +## Kill criteria |
| 20 | + |
| 21 | +- **Method-level:** sheaf near-section frustration does not beat the brute-force baseline |
| 22 | + (vault: `wiki/concepts/brute-force-lbd-baseline.md`) on held-out bridges. |
| 23 | +- **Pivot gate (time-bound, set 2026-07-02, human-approved):** if the Path C TF-IDF |
| 24 | + semantic-edge substrate (EXP-RS-11) yields **<3 evaluable Feynman pairs** or |
| 25 | + **`BENCH_P10 ≤ 0.15`** on the shared 10-pair set by **2026-09-30**, kill the |
| 26 | + dynamical-substrate line and revert to the brute-force baseline. |
| 27 | + |
| 28 | +## Current claims |
| 29 | + |
| 30 | +| claim | status | evidence | |
| 31 | +|---|---|---| |
| 32 | +| Dynamical-LBD on the pre-2015 cond-mat *citation* graph is empirically infeasible (~41 components / 153 nodes → `K_stable` bisection diverges) | verified (Phase 29 FAIL, 2026-05-05) | `.planning/phases/29-kuramoto-corpus-build/29-VERIFICATION.md` | |
| 33 | +| Sheaf near-section frustration ranks bridges on this corpus | HOLD — untestable on VOID corpus (T2 precision@10 = 0.000) | `prototypes/SHEAF_V01_RESULTS.md` | |
| 34 | +| TF-IDF cosine edges (τ=0.3) make the same corpus connected enough for spectral/dynamical LBD (`n_cc/N ≤ 0.05`, largest CC ≥ 80%) | predicted — untested (EXP-RS-11, pre-registered) | vault: `wiki/meta/agentic-experiments-research.md` § EXP-RS-11 | |
| 35 | + |
| 36 | +## Active experiment |
| 37 | + |
| 38 | +**EXP-RS-11** (→ Phase 30) — TF-IDF cosine semantic-edge substrate. Full pre-registered |
| 39 | +hypothesis / predictions / setup / metrics: vault `wiki/meta/agentic-experiments-research.md` |
| 40 | +§ EXP-RS-11. Decision provenance: `.cartographer-notes.md` (pivot approved 2026-07-02, human; |
| 41 | +recorded in vault hypothesis-ledger, research-portfolio, decision-timeline). |
| 42 | + |
| 43 | +## Claim history |
| 44 | + |
| 45 | +`CLAIMS.jsonl` (commission-compatible) is created by the first `/commission --research` run on |
| 46 | +this thread; until then the table above is the claim record. (Exact format is an open Layer-2 |
| 47 | +spec question — session feedback welcome.) |
| 48 | + |
| 49 | +## Last verification |
| 50 | + |
| 51 | +2026-05-05 — Phase 29 verification (FAIL verdict, honest negative; gate not reached). |
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